UPDATE: September 30, 2015
Tropical Storm Joaquin has been upgraded to a hurricane. Winds have Increased to 75 mph and further strengthening is likely. The forecast calls for Joaquin to be a strong Category 2 hurricane in a few days with winds as strong as 110 mph.
Heavy rains are expected to impact the northeastern states later this weekend, with the possibility of flooding and beach erosion in some areas from North Carolina to New Jersey and New England, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The following information on Tropical Storm Joaquin was received earlier from the National Hurricane Center:
- Currently about 425 miles from the northeastern Bahamas, Joaquin is moving slowly to the west and this is expected to continue over the next day or so before turning north Friday into Saturday.
- Parts of the northeast Bahamas could see rain and wind impacts from Joaquin late this week depending on how far southwest the storm moves.
- The official National Hurricane Center forecast track includes parts of the U.S. East Coast this weekend into early next week.
- Forecast uncertainty is unusually high. It's entirely possible that Joaquin may never make landfall at all.
- In any case, Tropical Storm Joaquin is not expected to impact land until the weekend, if at all.
- Wind shear is expected to lessen some over the next couple of days. Combined with warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of moisture in the area, some strengthening is likely.
- Moisture and/or energy associated with Joaquin could enhance rainfall along the cold front in the Northeast late this week. Regardless if that happens or not, the East Coast will see significant impacts from the larger scale weather pattern taking shape.
- Late in the week and this weekend, moisture from Tropical Storm Joaquin in the western Atlantic will be involved in this soaking setup as the front stalls near the East Coast. That said, significant impacts are likely in portions of the East no matter how much Joaquin is involved due to the large-scale weather pattern taking shape. This will include, flash flooding, river flooding, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and some coastal flooding at high tide.
Residents are cautioned to be alert to changes in the weather and to take whatever measures are appropriate depending on local conditions.